Javascript is required Opportunities: Stocks remain promising

Opportunities: Stocks remain promising

The strong trend in equities is likely to continue in 2026, as the key drivers of the strong performance of selected equity segments remain in place. Gold also remains in the focus of many investors, as it allows for diversification in portfolios.

The macroeconomic outlook is good. Many central banks lowered key interest rates in 2025, and low interest rates are favorable for economic growth and financial markets. In the US, economic growth is being driven by massive investment in AI technology. In Europe, governments are increasing their fiscal spending. One example is the Merz government's plans, announced in 2025, for extensive spending on infrastructure and defense. Implementation is set to begin in 2026 and is expected to have a stimulating effect on the economy and corporate profitability.

The outlook for the corporate sector is also favorable. In 2026, earnings growth in the corporate sector is expected to accelerate in both the US and Europe. Equities generated strong returns in 2025, and we expect them to continue to perform well in 2026. We are therefore starting the new year with a positive outlook for this asset class.

“In 2026, both the US and Europe are likely to see an acceleration in corporate sector profit growth.”

Steffen Kunkel  – Chief Investment Strategist

Industrial sector benefits from investment programs

Companies in the industrial sector are likely to benefit from government contracts in defense. The same applies to companies that manufacture materials for the construction or maintenance of railways, power grids, bridges, and roads. Against this backdrop, we take a positive view of stocks in the industrial sector.

US stock market once again more attractive than Europe

At the regional level, we see greater potential in US equities than in their European counterparts. We expect the US economy to grow faster than the eurozone economy in 2026. Growth in the US will be driven in part by investment in AI – companies in this sector play a dominant role on the stock market, for example large technology companies. As mentioned above, significant investments are also being made in Europe, which will boost the eurozone economy, even if growth here is likely to be slower than in the US. We are therefore entering the new year with an overweight position in the US, an underweight position in Europe, and a neutral stance on emerging markets.

Bonds reflect nervousness about sovereign debt

We maintain a neutral stance on bonds and favor high-quality bonds. However, we expect long-term yields on German government bonds to rise gradually in 2026 due to the German government's extensive investments mentioned above. For investors in government bonds, this could lead to price losses (bond prices fall when yields rise). Pfandbriefe, on the other hand, are less sensitive to political developments and the government's fiscal policy decisions than government bonds. We therefore have a positive view of Pfandbriefe. Our positive stance on investment-grade corporate bonds remains unchanged.

We remain cautious on the riskier bond segment, particularly high-yield corporate bonds. We consider these bonds to be expensive. This means that investors are not being adequately compensated for the risks they are taking.

Within the bond segment, we prefer emerging markets to high-yield corporate bonds.

Gold continues to shine

We also see opportunities in gold. The precious metal proved to be an excellent investment in 2025, recording an exceptionally strong rise and reaching a record level of almost US$4,400 per ounce in October. Nevertheless, we continue to regard gold as an attractive investment, offering a “safe haven” – especially in times of geopolitical tension. In addition, central banks are buying more and more gold as they seek to hold fewer reserves in US dollars. We believe this trend will continue.

Gold is also likely to benefit from a weaker dollar, which we expect to see in 2026. Furthermore, gold is often used to hedge against inflation risks. Inflation remains a concern, particularly in the US. Investors are also concerned about the independence of the Federal Reserve. Many of these factors are likely to persist in 2026. We continue to view gold as an attractive investment vehicle for portfolio diversification and therefore maintain an overweight allocation.

“AI technologies will remain an important topic for stock markets in 2026. Agent-based AI in particular is a trend to watch.”

Steffen Kunkel  – Chief Investment Strategist

Stocks: In 2026, the market looks to agent-driven AI

In 2026, the capital market is likely to increasingly focus on agentic AI. This form of artificial intelligence uses AI agents—software components that are capable of independently planning, executing, and improving tasks with limited human supervision. Unlike generative AI, which only produces content, AI agents actually perform actions. When planning a trip with ChatGPT, for example, an AI agent could be tasked with finding and booking the best hotels and travel options.

Investors may be interested in exploring this new phase of AI. We currently see investment opportunities in AI infrastructure, including cloud and data center service providers and semiconductor companies. Finally, we continue to see growth potential in cybersecurity providers specializing in AI.

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As of: November 2025